Wintersday Commodity Speculation

With the next holiday event, Wintersday, fast approaching we can expect to see speculation surrounding a number of different items on the trading post. I have been actively reading blogs posts and forum posts as well as watching the market on gw2spidy and live in game. I have also reviewed the recipes made available for Halloween to compare. Today I want to go over some of the items that I think will do good around the holidays. I could speculate all day long, so I am going to limit myself to my favourite picks.

Eggs

Eggs have been all over the place since the first Wintersday announcement. Similar turmoil can be expected for the next announcement  I think the same thing is on most peoples minds when they think eggs and Christmas and that is Eggnog. Everyone is betting on there being an eggnog recipe. Judging by the Halloween recipes the eggnog will not be anything special stat-wise, so expect prices to fall when that information hits the market. Even if eggs do not spike in price they are still a safe investment. For more information see my previous articles on eggs here and here.

Egg prices from Nov. 27 through Dec. 6

Speaking of eggs, remember the old aphorism, "don't put all your eggs in one basket." This should be the number one rule you use when making investments for Wintersday. Diversifying your investments across a variety of commodities will be key to minimizing your risk.

Chocolate

Chocolate is hot right now. Buy orders greatly exceed sell orders at the moment  For the last week the prices have been steadily rising. This was proceeded by large spikes around the time of the first Wintersday announcement. Keep an eye on the day-to-day fluctuations and pick up some on the cheap. When the next Wintersday announcement hits get ready to sell during the price spike. Keep an eye on the number of sell listings on gw2spidy as an indicator to when the market is topping out and then sell.

Chocolate Buy Orders

Chocolate Sell Orders

With that said, I would like to use the example of chocolate's spike last week as an example of what to look for in the coming days and once the price is spiking. I think the charts are fairly self explanatory. Note how the number of buy orders reflect the rise in prices. Then look at how the sell orders sky rocketed as the price fell. Keep this in mind when shopping around for holiday goods and then selling them during the spikes.

Mint Leaf

Mint Leaf spiked in price about a week ago and then it has been quite ever since, almost too quite. I expect speculation surrounding candy cane recipes to cause the price of mint leaf to jump before Wintersday. I do not expect the prices to stay high for the entire event, as like Halloween, the recipes will probably not be good stat-wise and will merely be seasonal and festive.

Mint Leaf prices Nov. 28 through Dec. 6

As I write this article (early Friday morning) the sell listings on Mint have bottomed out and a small spike has arisen. I expect this to be just the beginning of things to come.

Cinnamon Sticks

At the moment Cinnamon Sticks are one of the top supplied items on the Trading Post and you can pick up a couple thousand on the cheap. When the first Winterday announcement hit A LOT of cinnamon sticks disappeared from the market. I am taking on the order of half a million cinnamon sticks.

Cinnamon prices Nov. 27 through Dec. 6

This was not enough to break through all the price walls, but it was enough to move the price of cinnamon off 3c for the first time in a month. Another big push could see those walls broken and the price of cinnamon start to float free. If 1000 users each buy 1000 cinnamon sticks that is 1 million cinnamon sticks. Thinking of it that way make it seem much more plausible that we will see a break through.

Cinnamon wall.

Cinnamon as a longer term play will revolve around the recipes that are released for Wintersday. One could speculate that Arena Net will attempt to preform a Wintersday miracle and make 2 million sticks of Cinnamon disappear. A quick Google reveals that a standard gingerbread recipe (IRL) calls for cinnamon. If gingerbread armor, and weapons are included, I think that Winterday miracle may come true.

Piles of Dust

Specifically I am talking about Piles of Crystalline, Incandescent, Luminous, Radiant, Shimmering, Glittering Dust. A couple of the markets reacted to the Wintersday announcement last week and several have seen sharp spikes over the past day. Watch these markets carefully. Not all are going to be good plays for Wintersday.

Some lower tier dusts are spiking already as seen with Radiant Dust over Dec. 6

The various kinds dusts can be transmuted into each other through the mystic forge. That means if the price of one dust rises, so to will the price of the dust directly below it. This effect tapers out the further down the tier list you go, since the recipe to upgrade dust requires skill points in the form of Crystals and Philosopher's Stones. Also, for the Halloween event there were a number of recipes which required Piles of Crystalline Dust and I think it is safe to say the same will be true for Wintersday.

Left to Right, from lowest tier to highest, Glittering, Shimmering, Radiant, Luminous, Incandescent, Crystalline

The dusts are also used to transmute other crafting materials (say Mithiril into Orichalcum). If several Tier 6 crafting materials spike in price over Wintersday we can expect to see Piles of Dusts follow suit as more people transmute Tier 5 materials into Tier 6. 

Crystalline Dust prices Nov 28 through Dec 6.

Another possibility are glittery Wintersday Ornaments, toys, decorations, and gear. What better way to add Wintersday sparkle if not through a pile of Glittering or Shimmering Dust.

Overall, I feel Piles of Dust should be a safe investment. Even if the price does not rise for Wintersday you can still use the dust to take advantage of other markets that may open via the mystic forge, for future crafting, or you can resell back to the Trading Post and try to break even.

Glacial Lodestones

The Destroyer, Crystal, and Corrupted Lodestones were required for the big ticket Halloween recipes. I think we can expect to see similar recipes again this time around. It is hard to predict exactly which stones will be required, but a safe bet is Glacial Lodestones. 

Glacial Lodestone prices from Nov 27 through Dec 6

The markets surrounding Glacial Lodestones (Glacial Slivers, Fragments, Shard, and Cores) have seen steep rises in the past couple days. I believe we can expect to see these trends continue into the Wintersday festival.

Glacial Fragments prices from Dec 4 through Dec 6

I think this is the riskiest investment I am suggesting. There is a lot of money to be made and lost in this market. I almost did not post this one as I am unsure about it still. I wanted to point it out though. Tread carefully.

Other Markets

There are many more markets to invest in besides the ones I have mentioned above. I have read people about people speculating on things such as Carrots for the noses of snowmen, Wood for toys, Globs of Ectoplasm for high level crafting, as well as countless other food recipes (Sage Leaf, Saffron Thread, Oranges, Walnuts, Butter, Wet Ingredients, Dry Ingredients, etc.). Use your imagination and watch for indicators in the market.

Another market to consider, if you have the coin to play, are Gems. Gems tend to be a longer term investment -- a way to protect your gold against inflation. The fees surrounding Gem transaction generally make them prohibitive as a short term investment. A Christmas spike in gem prices could make the investment worth your while. I personally will not be investing in Gems as I do not really have the coin to play at the levels I would want too.

Remember, the key to playing the market around this coming holiday is not to necessarily predict what is actually going to be in the game, but to predict what other will think will be in the game. Also, remember to take my predictions with a grain of salt. I might not be right. You have to use your own judgement to decide if this risk is worth it to you or not.