Showing posts with label spreadsheet. Show all posts
Showing posts with label spreadsheet. Show all posts

Fine Crafting Materials Revisited

In the past on this blog I have explored the potential profits to be made promoting crafting materials in the Mystic Forge. I have articles discussing the specific promotion of rare materials, fine materials, common materials, and piles of dust. Today, however, I would like to revisit the promotion of fine materials. Originally I had dismissed promoting lower tier fine materials as being unprofitable. Thanks to Egg Baron reader ZoCks this assumption was challenged and I was proven wrong. There are in fact excellent profits to be made promoting some of the lower tiers. Today I will share with you my assumptions, my experiences, and the updates I made to my crafting materials promotion spreadsheet.


My Assumptions



All the fine materials.
Tier 1 at the top row tier 6 in the bottom row.
The main thing that needs to be determined, in order to calculate the profitability of a promotion formula, is the number of materials that the Mystic Forge outputs per promotion done. This is easy for the rare crafting materials which have no random components to the output. You put in the materials and you always get out the same thing. This is different for the fine materials and the common materials. The number of materials returned is different every time. The best that we can hope to accomplish is to determine the average number of materials returned.

Luckily, from my experiences and from what I have read on the GW2 wiki, not every recipe has a different random output. Recipes of a given rarity and tier all seem to output the same number of materials on average. In other words all tier 5 fine crafting materials when promoted will on average yield the same number of tier 6 fine crafting materials. I have not rigorously tested this (although I have tested it to my satisfaction) thus it is an assumption.

I have extended this assumption slightly further when dealing with the additional tiers. It is obvious that there is a discontinuity between promoting from tier 5 to 6 and promoting tier 4 to 5. That is when you promote tier 5 materials into tier 6 materials you do not receive the same number of materials as output when you promote tier 4 materials into tier 5 materials. You will receive more for the tier 4 to 5 promotion. However, when you promote tier 1 to 2, 2 to 3, 3 to 4, or 4 to 5 you seem to receive the same average number of materials as output. Again, I have not rigorously tested this (but, again I have done so to my satisfaction) thus it is another assumption in this process.


My Trials


In order to determine the average number of materials returned when promoting the lower tiers of fine materials I did two promotions. In the first I promoted 3500 Tiny Fangs. In the second I promoted 500 Heavy Bones. Firstly, though for context this is the recipe for a single promotion for fine crafting materials (with the exception of piles of dust).

     50 Tier X Fine Materials
   +  1 Tier X+1 Fine Materials
   +  5 Tier X+1 Dust
   +  X Philosopher Stones
   = a random number of Tier X+1 Fine Materials

Where, X, is the tier of the material you are promoting. Thus, if you were promoting tier 3 materials you would need, 50 tier 3 materials, 1 tier 4 materials, 5 Piles of Luminous Dust (tier 4 dust), and 3 Philosopher Stones.

Here are my results. Firstly, for promoting the Tiny Fangs,

     3500 Tiny Fangs
   +   70 Small Fangs
   +  350 Piles of Shimmering Dust
   +   70 Philosopher Stones
   = 1163 Small Fangs

Removing the Small Fangs used in the formula leaves me with 1093 Small Fangs for 3500 Tiny Fangs. On average I received 15.6 Small Fangs for every 50 Tiny Fangs. This is not to bad and I had profits of about 70 silver per skill point. This is a good baseline for the average number of materials to expect as output. I have rounded this figure down to 15 for use in the spreadsheet. For those interested in the raw numbers here they are (12 9, 15, 9, 9, 25, 15, 19, 16, 11, 10, 25, 27, 16, 16, 15, 13, 11, 16, 9, 12, 38, 10, 15, 8, 10, 11, 24, 32, 15, 16, 9, 20, 26, 16, 22, 18, 14, 17, 14, 14, 12, 13, 13, 22, 37, 15, 9, 22, 12, 12, 12, 16, 11, 9, 33, 35, 14, 26, 28, 9, 13, 24, 15, 21, 13, 15, 12, 17, 14 = 1163)

Next, here are my results for promoting the Heavy Bones,

      500 Heavy Bones
   +   10 Large Bones
   +   50 Piles of Incandescent Dust
   +   40 Philosopher Stones
   =  211 Large Bones

Removing the Large Bone used in the formula leaves me with 201 Large Bones for 500 Heavy Bones. On average I received 20.1 Large Bone for every 50 Heavy Bone. I did not make any profit on this (in fact I lost quite a bit) but I did determine that the average output from this formula is similar enough to the output of the tier 1 to tier 2 formula to make the assumption that you receive the same number of materials when promoting any tier between 1 and 4. This seems to be others experience as well. For those interested in the raw numbers here they are (16, 18, 11, 37, 28, 16, 34, 17, 18, 16 = 211).


Spreadsheet Updates


I have gone ahead and added this information to my spreadsheet. You can now see the potential profits to be made promoting the rest of the tiers of fine crafting materials with the exception of the piles of dust. They have a slightly different formula and different outputs that need to be determined.


You will also notice that I have split the "simple view" up into three different sheets. You will now find the rare materials, common materials, and fine materials on their own spreadsheets. You can access the various spreadsheets using the tabs at the bottom of the screen.



Conclusions


Promoting lower tier crafting materials can be profitable. Right now you can easily make 50 - 80 silver per skill point promoting some of the tier 1 fine materials into tier 2 fine materials. The markets move relatively quickly as well meaning their is room to be made in the margins and you won't be sitting around on your inventory for long.

Again special thanks to ZoCks for pushing me to get this done and for informing me of the profits to begin with. I hope everyone can use this to their advantage. Let me know how you do in the comments.

Mystic Binding Agent

News of people purchasing the Mystic Binding Agents has started to come in on the forums (eg, here and here). The word is that they work as I predicted: one Mystic Binding Agent replaces one Elonian Wine in the Rare Materials promotion formula. But, wait! It is more complicated then that! You can used the Mystic Binding Agents to batch together promotions of lower tier materials. Today I would like to discuss the consequences for using these item and discuss whether the are worth buying.

*Edit* This article was revised on February 6th, 2013 based on new information that was learned.


Mystic Binding Agents


Firstly, a package of ten Mystic Binding Agents can be obtained from the laurels vendor for ten laurels. On February 6th, 2013 I purchased the Mystic Binding Agents to determine exactly how they work. I have since gone through and edited this article to reflect what I learned.

Is it worth using your laurels to get Mystic Binding Agents? Laurels can be converted into a number of different items which can then be converted into gold. Depending on the route you take you can end up with ten Unidentified Dyes (worth about 1.8 gold) for five Laurels, two pieces of rare gear (worth 80 - 100 silver) with a chance at an exotic also for five Laurels, 3 fine crafting materials (worth 15 - 45 silver) for one Laurel. Obtaining the Mystic Binding agents which each replace an Elonian Wine worth about 25 silver is comparable, but you have other options with the Mystic Binding Agents as well. The following formula are possible.


8 Slivers + 1 Mystic Binding Agent + 1 Crystal + 1 Pile of Radiant Dust = 4 Fragments
6 Fragments + 1 Mystic Binding Agents + 1 Crystal + 1 Pile of Luminous Dust = 3 Shards
4 Shards + 1 Mystic Binding Agent + 1 Crystal + 1 Pile of Incandescent Dust = 2 Cores
2 Cores + 1 Mystic Binding Agent + 1 Crystal + 1 Pile of Crystalline Dust = 1 Lodestone

This allows players to batch together promotions, thus spending less dust, and crystals to achieve the same results. Also not having the pay for the multiple Elonian Wine opens up a host of possibilities. I have done some calculations and currently, by promoting 6 Charged Fragments into 3 Charged Shards you could profit by 80 silver per Mystic Binding Agent or 130 silver per Skill Point. That is a largest profit I have seen, thus far. Thus, as a way to generate additional gold Mystic Binding Agents are viable.

Of course there are other things you can spend your Laurels on that you can not get any where else. It will be up to you to decide what you want to obtain with your Laurels, more gold or unique items like mini-pets, ascended amulets, infusions, etc. My article on laurels takes a look at all the things you can obtain currently and might help you decide.

I am interested to see if how these will effect the overall markets for all Rare Materials. Mystic Binding agents have made promoting the lower materials profitable which you can see in my promotions spreadsheet. You can also promote through multiple tiers to make a profit. For example, just doing some quick math you could promote 6 Charged Fragments, into 3 Charged Shards, into 1.5 Charged Cores, into 0.75 Charged Lodestone. Yes, I only made a fraction of a lodestone, so obviously you would need to run these promotions multiple times in order to get a full stone. We can use this to calculate how much it would cost to make a full stone though. Since 75% of a lodestone costs 3 Binding Agents and 120 silver in materials, 100% of one would cost 4 Binding Agents and 160 silver. If I had done this without Mystic Binding Agents it would have cost about 325 silver to make the same Charged Lodestone. A Charged Lodestone sells for about 300-350 silver.

As you can see the Mystic Binding Agents make the market much more dynamic and interconnected. At the moment, in my opinion, there are better things to spend your laurels on. If, however, you just want to convert your laurels into gold there are some extremely profitable channels available to you (see my spreadsheet below). In the future, though, this system will really come into its own. Eventually, laurels will be a less valuable commodity and more people will be looking to turn them into gold and then we will see large numbers of people playing the market converting one type of material into another.



Updated Spreadsheet


I made a quick update to my spreadsheet showing the profits to be made from promoting crafting materials to reflect your option to use the Mystic Binding Agents. On the detailed view I have added a column showing profits to be earned per attempt and per skill point if you were to use the Mystic Binding Agent. The formula needs some tweaks to properly reflect all potential profits, but right now it is the minimum you will earn.

I have also added another option to the risk assessment on the simplified view which will trigger if there is only profit to be made if you use the Mystic Binding Agent. You will see this as "See Binding Agent [6]". This means that there is only profit to be made using this promotion formula if you use a Mystic Binding Agent. Since this only applies to the Rare Materials I have left the cells related to Fine and Common crafting materials blank. Using this players should be able to spot opportunities to promote materials and gain the most for their laurels and skill points.

I have added a test page to the spreadsheet which attempts to calculate the profits from these new  promotions. At the moment, if my calculations are correct, you can make about 70-80 silver in the best case at the moment. Check the new tab on the spreadsheet titled, "*Testing* MBA Promotion Tables". This is very much a work in progress, but I am fairly confidant about the profit calculations now that I have got my hands on the Mystic Binding Agent myself and seen how it is used.

Conclusions


In general, I do not think people will be rushing to spend their Laurels on Mystic Binding Agents. Most people will still be interested in going after the unique items that are currently not obtainable any other way. Still though, I think enough people will be interested in obtaining cheap Lodestones or just making gold that we will see prices continue to come down just nothing dramatic. Over time as people obtain the unique rewards the laurel vendor has to offer gold making schemes will become relevant again. Arena Net has also stated that at some point down the road we will be able to obtain laurels from other achievements besides dailies and monthlies. At that point I would expect the Mystic Binding Agents to be much more relevant. 

A lot of people feel let down by the Mystic Binding Agents as they assumed they would be a quick fix to the high prices of the Lodestones. It is understandable to be disappointed but often players need to check their expectations. Seeing how much gold could be earned per Laurel for the other items should have led players to the conclusion that the Mystic Binding Agent would be worth a similar amount. 

Players also need to start checking their expectations regarding any "fixes" coming to the Lodestone prices at all. It is still debatable whether there is a problem in the first place. Arena Net has not stated any plans to attempt to lower prices of rare crafting materials. I would advise players to think realistically and expect that any changes that are made to these markets will be small and measured. Also, start thinking longer term. I do not think we have seen all the implications of the laurel system on the prices of lodestones yet.

What do you think about these new items? Will you be spending your Laurels to obtain them or are you saving for something else? Let me know in the comments!

Thanks to TobranEarnwood's video below for setting me on the path to realizing that there was more to these Mystic Binding Agents then we first thought.


Skill Points to Gold Spreadsheet Update

I recently released a dynamic spreadsheet that calculates the expected return you could expect to receive when promoting crafting materials from one tier to another and keeps its data up-to-date from GW2Spidy.com. I am happy to announce that I am ready to share the newest version of this spreadsheet with my readers. This spreadsheet is the culmination of the work I did writing blog posts about promoting common crafting materials, fine crafting materials, rare crafting materials, and piles of dust through the mystic forge. The new sheet has a number of new features, such as, a simplified view, Tier 1 - 5 Rare Crafting Materials, faster updates, and an update log. With that said here is the spreadsheet,

Egg Baron Material Promotion Spreadsheet - Last Updated February 16th, 2013.
* Feb 4th, 2013 - Posted Publically
* Feb 5th, 2013 - Added column showing profits using Mystic Binding Agent
* Feb 16th, 2013 - Added the rest of the fine crafting material promotions (tier 1-2, 2-3, 3-4, and 4-5). Also, split simple view up into three different sheets, one for rare materials, fine materials, and common materials. Access the different sheets via the tabs at the bottom of the screen. For more details see this post.

A special thanks goes out to ZoCks for helping me collect data!


Simplified View and the Risk Column


The new simplified view.
The most obvious change is the simplified view. The simplified view was designed to give readers an easy way to view the most important information about the various promotions. It shows the formula used in the Mystic Forge, the expected output, expected average profit per attempt and per skill point, and a risk assessment.

The risk assessment is based on how likely it is for you to turn a profit. "No Profit" means that even in the best scenario you will not profit. "Extreme" means that only in the very best scenario will you profit. "High" means that you will only profit in cases above average. "Average" means that you will only profit when you perform at the average or better. "Low" means you will profit in all cases expect the worst results possible. "None" means that even in the worst case scenario you will still profit. Keep in mind that none of this takes into account the fluctuations in the market while you perform transactions. That is a risk you need to access for yourself. This risk assessment only takes into account the fluctuations in the output from the Mystic Forge.

You can select a sheet to view from these tabs.
The simplified view should be the active sheet when you open the spreadsheet. If not you can access it via the sheets tabs towards the bottom of the window. You will also see three other tabs; "Detailed View", "raw data", and "log". The detailed view looks the same as the old spreadsheet showing calculations and cost/profit/revenue breakdown. For instructions on reading this sheet see my old blog post. I will talk more about the raw data sheet and log sheet below.


Other Updates


I have also added the rest of the rare crafting material promotions. Currently, none of them are profitable but recent market shifts have opened up possibilities. Now it should be easy to watch for opportunities. I hope to follow this change up by eventually adding the rest of the fine and common crafting materials but more research is required into output quantities. Also, if it turns out the new "Mystic Binding Agents" effects profitability on promoting rare materials I will attempt to factor this into the spreadsheet and make an update.

Next, I did a lot of work on how the code gets the data from GW2Spidy. Formerly, I made a series of tiny requests to GW2Spidy for each piece of data then updated each cell one at a time. You may have seen this happening as you used the old version. The new spreadsheet makes one large request for all the data. This data is then cached for use for a variable amount of time (currently, 15 minutes the same amount of time GW2Spidy keeps its data). Updating the cache with 20,729 items from GW2Spidy takes roughly 30 - 60 seconds, however, this sheet only grabs the 1,019 crafting materials as this is quicker taking roughly 5 seconds. Once the data is cached it can be accessed instantly. 

I have also moved all the raw data to its own sheet called "raw data". This sheet gives me a central place to select which items I am interested in and get all the information about them. Updating all the data in one central location is much faster then updating individual cells. Now, if the cache contains fresh data, the spreadsheet will update nearly instantly.

Finally, I have added a log. The log records each time the spreadsheet is updated, each time the cache is updated, and any errors that occur when connecting to GW2Spidy. Now it is much easier to tell if the data being displayed is fresh, or if there is some sort of error holding the update process up.


Fair Warning


Please report bugs or errors in the comments or via e-mail.
I have been running most of the new code for about a week and I believe I have eliminated all the bugs and errors. Every time my spreadsheet scripts generate an error it is logged and once an hour I am e-mailed a report. The only error I can not eliminate is a timeout error associated with Google's URLFetchApp. Sometimes when I attempt to retrieve data from GW2Spidy I am unable to complete the transfer but instead of receiving an HTTP error the fetch function times out and crashes the script. This can happen because of a slow transfer rate between GW2Spidy and Google or when the connection is interrupted, for example.  Looking into this there does not seem to currently be a work around and Google is working on a solution. There is nothing I can do as it is Google's function that causes my script to stop running. I can not even catch this and report it in the log. The only way to tell that this is happening is if you see a message in the log stating a cache update started without a reciprocal caching completed message. I tell you all this to let you know about the sheets limitations. It is not perfect. It is not fully tested. Use this sheet to look for opportunities then follow up with research in game. If you see any error or problems please do not hesitate to let me know via e-mail or through the comments below.


Using my code


If you would like your own version of this spreadsheet you may copy it to your Google Docs for your own private use and modify it an anyway you wish. When you copy the spreadsheet you will also copy the script I wrote. If you would like to use this sheet or my script to publish your own material please leave a reference  to my blog somewhere within your body of work. I also would like to see how people are using my spreadsheet so please let me know about your modification whether private or public. You can add me as a collaborator via my e-mail address if you do not wish to make your work globally public.

With that said, yes it is now possible to modify this sheet to your hearts content. Simply add your own ID numbers to the first column of the raw data sheet in a copy of this spreadsheet on your Google Docs. The next time the spreadsheet updates the GW2Spidy data for this item will be added to the raw data sheet in the columns to the right of the ID column. I will have more details about creating your own spreadsheet using my code in the future. For now feel free to play around with it and ask questions in the comments below. I believe I have clean code that is well commented, so you should be able to make out alright yourself.


Legacy version of the Old Sheet


I will be turning off the old spreadsheet in about one weeks time. The sheet will remain shared in my Google Docs folder but the script will no longer run and the data will no longer update. I have placed warnings in the spreadsheet about this cut off dating instructing people to come here to obtain the new spreadsheet. If you would like a copy of the old spreadsheet please copy it before February 8th, 2013. At this time I will also add a warning to my blog post on the old spreadsheet indicating that it is no longer active and linking to the new spreadsheet.

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As always let me know what you think of my content. It helps me decide what to do more of and what to do less of. If you are a regular user of this spreadsheet be sure to come back to my site every now and then to check for update and to get your Guild Wars 2 news.

Converting Skillpoints to Gold

Today, I would like to share with you a spreadsheet that I have been working on for a while. It takes everything that I learned writing the articles on promoting common, fine, and rare materials, as well as piles of dust. This spreadsheet automatically pulls data from GW2Spidy.com and shows you the costs, revenues, profits, and risks associated with promoting crafting materials.


About the Spreadsheet


It is still a work in progress and I know there are things that I can improve. Namely, this spreadsheet is not easy to read unless you know what is being discussed. I will try to explain those things below to make it easier. Also, this spreadsheet only has conversions for tier 5 to 6 fine materials and rare materials as that is all I have researched so far. When I get more data on the rates for the lower tiers I will add those as well.

** Update ** I have updated the spreadsheet. Please go to my latest blog post for more information.

Anyway, here is the spreadsheet. It is on Google docs and anyone can access it and read it. You should not need to register for anything to view it. When it is opened it should automatically update the buy prices and sell prices for the promotion formula involved. It is also set to automatically update once an hour.

I will quickly explain the values that you will see in each of the columns.

  • Description
    • Lower Material
      • The name of the lower tier material to be promoted.
    • Higher Material
      • The name of the material the "Lower Material" will be promoted into.
    • Dust Required
      • The name of the pile of dust required to promote "Lower Material" into "Higher Material"
    • Low ID
      • The GW2Spidy ID for the "Lower Material". *See getting ID below.
    • High ID
      • The GW2Spidy ID for the "Higher Material". *See getting ID below.
    • Dust ID
      • The GW2Spidy ID for the "Dust Required". *See getting ID below.
  • Costs
    • Lower Material Cost
      • The highest buy order listed on GW2Spidy for "Lower Material".
    • # of Lower Material
      • The number of "Lower Material" required in the promotion formula.
    • Total Material Cost
      • Calculation: "Lower Material Cost" times "# of Lower Material".
    • Dust Cost
      • The highest buy order listed on GW2Spidy for "Dust Required".
    • Number of Dust
      • The number of "Dust Required" used in the promotion formula.
    • Total Dust Cost
      • Calculation: "Dust Cost" times "Number of Dust".
    • # of Elonian Wine
      • The number of Bottles of Elonian Wine needed in the promotion formula.
    • Elonian Wine Cost
    • Total Wine Cost
      • Calculation: "# of Elonian Wine" times "Elonian Wine Cost"
    • Total Cost
      • Calculation: "Total Material Cost" plus "Total Dust Cost" plus "Total Wine Cost"
  • Revenue
    • Price of High Material
      • The lowest sell order list on GW2Spidy for "Higher Materail"
    • Number of Higher Material Returned
      • The expected number of "Higher Material" that will be produced. Divided into five categories to show you your risk.
      • Low: The absolute worst case.
      • Low Average: Slightly lower than the average, what you can expect in a realistic worst case when running larger numbers of promotions.
      • Average: The number of materials you can expect to obtain. This is based on my trials.
      • High Average: Slightly higher than the average, what you can expect in a realistic best case when running larger numbers of promotions.
      • High: The absolute best case.
    • Revenue
      • Calculation: "Price of High Material" times "Number of Higher Material Returned".
    • Trading Post Fee
      • The amount taken, as a percent, by the Trading Post as a fee.
    • Revenue After Fee
      • Calculation: "Revenue" times (1 - "Trading Post Fee")
  • Skill Points
    • # of Philo Stones
      • The number of Philosopher Stones required to promote "Lower Material" into "Higher Material"
    • # of Crystals
      • The number of Crystals required to promote "Lower Material" into "Higher Material"
    • # of SP / Try
      • Calculation: ("# of Philo Stones" / 10) + (3 * "# of Crystals" / 5)
  • Profit
    • Net Profit Per Attempt
      • Calculation: "Revenue After Fee" minus "Total Costs"
    • Profit Per Skill Point
      • "Net Profit Per Attempt" divided by "# of SP / Try"
    • Return of Costs
      • "Net Profit Per Attempt" divided by "Total Costs"
  • Last Update
    • Low Mat
      • The last time "Lower Material Cost" was updated on GW2Spidy.com
    • High Mat
      • The last time "Price of High Material" was updated on GW2Spidy.com
    • Dust
      • The last time "Dust Cost" was updated on GW2Spidy.com
You may also notice that the columns and cells have different colours. The colours just represent where the data is coming from. Stuff on a white background are item names and IDs. Cells with a pink coloured background are cells that have data pulled automatically from GW2Spidy.com. Oranges cells are variables and constants associated with the promotion recipe. Cells with a grey background are cells that are calculated with a formula. Finally, green cells are cells in the profit section showing a profit, where as, red cells in the profit section show a loss.

* Getting GW2Spidy ID. To get the ID simply go to GW2Spidy.com and search for the item you wish to retrieve the ID for. For example, "Egg". Navigate to the page for the item you are looking for. The URL for this page will look something like this, "http://www.gw2spidy.com/item/12143". The five digit number, in this case 12143 for eggs, is the ID.


Using the Spreadsheet


Using the spreadsheet is easy. Once you load it up the prices will slowly update. If you scroll all the way to the right you will see the "Last Update" section and may even see these change as the prices are updated. This is live data from GW2Spidy showing you the age of the data I have pulled for the prices of the commodities. This should be no older than one hour as that is the minimum time between updates. If it is older than an hour, something is wrong with the spreadsheet or GW2Spidy might be down.

Once you are sure the data is up-to-date, scroll to the "Profits" section. If you are looking to convert skill points into gold look to the "Profit Per Skill Point" section. You will see that in this section there are five columns, Low, Low Average, Average, High Average, and High. I have added these columns to help you judge your risk. Your risk is always higher the fewer promotions you perform. This is due to something called "the law large numbers". Basically it states, the more you perform an action with random chance the more your average result will tend towards a true mean. On the wiki page linked, they use the example of rolling a six-sided die. The more you roll this die, the closer your average roll (the sum of all your rolls divided by the number of rolls made) will be 3.5 [ (1 + 2 + 3 + 4 + 5 + 6) / 6 = 3.5]. This is because there are more ways for you to roll a large number of dice and receive an average of 3.5 than any other combination of dice rolls. For example, think of the extreme case of having an average of one over ten rolls. There is only one way to order the dice to get an average of one: every die showing a one. The next lowest average you could obtain is 1.1 with nine dice showing a one and one die showing a two. Each of the ten dice could be the two, thus there are ten different ways to achieve this average, versus the one way to obtain the average of one. You would find that if you calculated all the averages that it would be most likely to roll the dice such that the average is 3.5. And this only gets more likely the more dice you roll.

With that said, the more times you do your promotion the more likely you are to obtain the result in the "Average" column. If you only do a couple promotions or just one you could receive any result between "Low" and "High". If you do around ten promotions you will most likely be between Low Average and High Average with your result. Use this as a guide to determining your risk. Anything can happen. You could roll ten ones in a row. The Law of Large Numbers is not a fact. If you roll nine ones in a row there is nothing that says other results are more likely on the tenth roll. The tenth roll still has a one in six chance to give each of the results including another one.

I tell you all this because this method is a gamble, there is no lying about that. You need to judge the risk for yourself. You also have to keep in mind that these markets can be volatile and change within hours. Do not be afraid to hold on to produced materials until you can sell them for a profit. Also, making your own dust to lower its cost can help increase profits.


Conclusions


I hope this spreadsheet helps you. I have already shared it with some guild mates and they have told me that it is intimidating. I hope that this guide helps you understand what is going on in this spreadsheet. It is really quite simple once you take a moment to examine it. If you have any problems with it, or have a question please do not hesitate to ask it below and I will do my best to answer. Most importantly if you notice any mistakes or bugs please let me know.

Now that I have all the data in the spreadsheet I will work on making an easier to read version of this sheet that shows less data in an easier to read format, perhaps with pictures. Also, I learned a lot about scripting for spreadsheets working on this project. This means that if this sheet proves popular I will create more spreadsheets in the future, and perhaps do a tutorial on how to make your own.

Finally, let me know about your successes. As much as I am gaining from having made this spreadsheet (roughly 30-50 silver per skill point) I want you guys to be successful as well. I hope this helps you make some silver. Good luck!